MAR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MAR - Marriott International Class A Common Stock
$359.87
6.70 (1.90%)
▲
5d:
+1.85%
30d:
-4.78%
90d:
-0.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
MAR is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $340 2026-06-18 with 16,069 OI. Call ratio: 87% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MAR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$488.58
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$303.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MAR is currently trading at $359.87, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $345.75 to $369.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.0) is in line with its historical norms (27.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $365.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MAR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $365.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$345.75 -
$369.25
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($377.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$345.75 -
$369.25
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$345.38
Resistance Level
$365.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.99
Wall Street Target
$377.33
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.7%
Profit Margin
36.0%
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 27.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$353.17
(0%)
2-Year Target
$353.17
(0%)
3-Year Target
$353.17
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
$353.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 12.8%)
$507.28
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.8%)
$414.77
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 12.8%)
$352.56
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.54
Bull Case
$533.26
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.1%, PE expands to 40.8
Base Case
$484.78
(+37%)
Market implied 37.1%, PE stable at 37.1
Bear Case
$240.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 11:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MAR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rajeev Menon
SELL
3492 shares
2026-02-19
Benjamin T Breland
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-18
Rajeev Menon
SELL
6333 shares
2026-02-18
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MAR price and gamma walls.
