MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$126.21
3.16 (2.57%)
▲
5d:
+19.55%
30d:
+11.82%
90d:
+68.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 10, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MRCY is 9.0% above its trading range ($115.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MRCY is 9.0% above its trading range ($115.79). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $126.21, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $100.17 to $115.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 82.4) compared to its historical average (58.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $101.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $127.83. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $101.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$100.17 -
$115.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRCY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 19.6% above Wall St target ($101.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 12.2% growth with 11.5% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Extended 9.0% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$100.17 -
$115.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$102.95
Resistance Level
$127.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
82.40
Wall Street Target
$101.50
(-19.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-1.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.2% premium
PE vs Historical
82.4 vs 58.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.61
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$158.88
(+26%)
3-Year Target
$178.27
(+41%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 82→58)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.12
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 82.4, Growth: 44.7%)
$382.67
(+203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 44.7%)
$101.14
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 44.7%)
$85.97
(-32%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:04 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:04 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David E Farnsworth
SELL
3625 shares
2026-04-16
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
100899 shares
2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
168648 shares
2026-03-03
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Advanced MRCY Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRCY price and gamma walls.
