MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$104.66
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-2.48%
30d:
+7.32%
90d:
+11.97%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.53
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $104.66, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.59 to $105.10. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (19.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.63, while resistance sits at $108.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $93.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.63, while resistance sits at $108.77.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $93.50. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$96.59 -
$105.10
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
56.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.7% above Wall St target ($93.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.59 -
$105.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.63
Resistance Level
$108.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.17
Wall Street Target
$93.50
(-10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 19.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.80
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$111.03
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$114.36
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.81
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$161.17
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$154.38
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$131.22
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$153.01
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.9%, PE expands to 31.0
Base Case
$139.10
(+33%)
Market implied 32.9%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$71.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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