MUSA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUSA - MURPHY USA INC.
$577.87
-2.93 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
-3.19%
30d:
+16.45%
90d:
+52.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When MUSA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUSA trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MUSA trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$431.61
Based on -2.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$268.00
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUSA is currently trading at $577.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $493.26 to $567.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.8) compared to its historical average (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $511.80, while resistance sits at $609.82.
Market Sentiment: MUSA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUSA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $511.80, while resistance sits at $609.82.
Market Sentiment: MUSA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$493.26 -
$567.51
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($558.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.4% growth expectation is conservative given 177% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$493.26 -
$567.51
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$511.80
Resistance Level
$609.82
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.77
Wall Street Target
$558.00
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
176.8%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 16.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$609.07
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$641.97
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$676.63
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$578.31
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -9.1%)
$480.91
(+-17%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: -9.1%)
$433.41
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: -9.1%)
$368.40
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.75
Bull Case
$649.43
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.7%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$590.39
(+2%)
Market implied 1.7%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$394.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 11, 2026 7:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:09 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MUSA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott G Woodward
SELL
137 shares
2026-03-05
Keith A Emery
SELL
899 shares
2026-02-26
Jeanne Linder Phillips
SELL
1155 shares
2026-02-24
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
HOLD
33 analysts |
$47 | 48 HOLD |
|
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc |
HOLD
28 analysts |
$682 | 54 HOLD |
|
BBY
Best Buy Co. Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$73 | 55 HOLD |
|
MNSO
Miniso Group Holding Ltd |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$23 | 55 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
HOLD
26 analysts |
$239 | 61 BUY |
