PAG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PAG - Penske Automotive Group, Inc.
$159.75
-2.43 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
-7.8%
30d:
-0.97%
90d:
-3.54%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
PAG is up 4.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $150 2026-06-18 with 10 OI. Put ratio: 88% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PAG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$203.49
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$126.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PAG is currently trading at $159.75, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $157.78 to $169.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $160.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (14th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $185.78 (+14.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PAG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $160.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (14th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $185.78 (+14.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$157.78 -
$169.69
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
14th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PAG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 14th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($185.78)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$157.78 -
$169.69
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.63
(4.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$160.26
Resistance Level
$174.62
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.52
Wall Street Target
$185.78
(+14.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.8%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$161.86
(0%)
2-Year Target
$161.53
(0%)
3-Year Target
$161.21
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$162.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.0%)
$359.87
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 5.0%)
$187.85
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 5.0%)
$159.67
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.83
Bull Case
$189.29
(+17%)
Analyst growth 1.8%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$172.09
(+6%)
Market implied 1.8%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$114.96
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 11.6
Stabilization Target:
$163.30
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PAG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michelle Hulgrave
SELL
2100 shares
2025-11-24
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Advanced PAG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PAG price and gamma walls.
