PFGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFGC - Performance Food Group Company
$95.97
-0.82 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
+3.06%
30d:
+7.82%
90d:
-2.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PFGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$168.42
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$104.58
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFGC is currently trading at $95.97, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.37 to $93.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.6) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.42 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFGC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $98.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: PFGC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $119.42 (+24.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$87.37 -
$93.57
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.4% below Wall St target ($119.42)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.4% growth with 6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.37 -
$93.57
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.31
Resistance Level
$98.13
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.61
Wall Street Target
$119.42
(+24.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.8%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.23
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$102.61
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$106.10
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$95.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 24.9%)
$248.69
(+159%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 24.9%)
$187.16
(+95%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 24.9%)
$159.09
(+66%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$215.03
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$195.48
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 46.5
Bear Case
$66.46
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chasity D Grosh
SELL
1843 shares
2026-02-10
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