PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$208.00
-0.26 (-0.12%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 09, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PGR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$250.95
Based on 2.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$155.82
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $208.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $204.44 to $222.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 12.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.50, while resistance sits at $215.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $248.63 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.50, while resistance sits at $215.25.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $248.63 (+19.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$204.44 -
$222.88
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($248.63)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$204.44 -
$222.88
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.50
Resistance Level
$215.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.92
Wall Street Target
$248.63
(+19.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Profit Margin
12.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 13.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$204.51
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$200.83
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$197.22
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$207.53
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 1.5%)
$376.17
(+81%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: 1.5%)
$218.01
(+5%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.0, Growth: 1.5%)
$185.30
(-11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.23
Bull Case
$206.86
(-1%)
Analyst growth -11.6%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$188.05
(-10%)
Market implied -11.6%, PE stable at 11.7
Bear Case
$144.66
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$219.16
(+5.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Steven Broz
SELL
1345 shares
2025-09-19
Patrick K Callahan
SELL
6420 shares
2025-09-19
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Advanced PGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
