PGR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PGR - Progressive Corporation
$198.24
-3.15 (-1.56%)
▼
5d:
-3.86%
30d:
-7.11%
90d:
-13.25%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 15, 2026
13d
Smart Money Accumulation
PGR is down 4.8% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-05-15 with 1,828 OI. Call ratio: 68% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PGR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.65
Based on -21.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.17
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PGR is currently trading at $198.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $201.56 to $210.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $196.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.29 (+17.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PGR is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $196.38. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PGR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $232.29 (+17.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$201.56 -
$210.03
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PGR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($232.29)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$201.56 -
$210.03
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$196.38
Resistance Level
$208.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.28
Wall Street Target
$232.29
(+17.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.2%
Profit Margin
12.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$193.68
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$189.23
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$184.87
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$198.76
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -46.4%)
$355.88
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -46.4%)
$195.50
(-1%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: -46.4%)
$166.17
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $19.22
Bull Case
$190.51
(-7%)
Analyst growth -15.9%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$173.19
(-16%)
Market implied -15.9%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$140.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$213.13
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 7:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PGR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Karen Bailo
SELL
3517 shares
2026-03-05
Carl G Joyce
SELL
141 shares
2026-03-05
Maribel Pumarejo
SELL
739 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced PGR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PGR price and gamma walls.
