SHOO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOO - Steven Madden Ltd
$43.88
-0.07 (-0.16%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: SHOO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.46
16.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOO is currently trading at $43.88, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.89 to $45.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.5) is in line with its historical norms (18.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$42.89 -
$45.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 6.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$42.89 -
$45.49
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.90
Resistance Level
$46.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.54
Wall Street Target
$47.78
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.4%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
18.5 vs 18.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.13
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$44.30
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$44.48
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 40.1%)
$145.23
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.5, Growth: 40.1%)
$120.74
(+175%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 40.1%)
$102.63
(+134%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 20.00 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.20
Bull Case
$53.07
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 21.0
Base Case
$43.95
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 20.0
Bear Case
$33.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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