SQM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SQM - Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA
$86.80
-4.82 (-5.26%)
▼
5d:
-5.24%
30d:
-0.94%
90d:
+23.81%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SQM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SQM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.71
Based on 0.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SQM is currently trading at $86.80, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.46 to $92.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 52.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SQM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $86.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$84.46 -
$92.96
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($79.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.46 -
$92.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$86.17
Resistance Level
$98.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.98
Wall Street Target
$79.00
(-9.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
52.3%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.0 vs 16.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.41
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$84.04
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$82.70
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$86.95
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -3.3%)
$108.12
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.0, Growth: -3.3%)
$78.39
(-10%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.6, Growth: -3.3%)
$66.63
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$205.52
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.9
Base Case
$186.84
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.4
Bear Case
$63.53
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.0 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$91.26
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SQM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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