SWK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SWK - Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
$75.14
-2.24 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-7.31%
30d:
+9.74%
90d:
-17.48%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
SWK is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $92.5 2026-07-17 with 1,078 OI. Call ratio: 70% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SWK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$124.66
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$77.41
2.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SWK is currently trading at $75.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.29 to $79.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.51 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SWK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $90.51 (+20.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$71.29 -
$79.21
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SWK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($90.51)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$71.29 -
$79.21
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.22
Resistance Level
$82.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.16
Wall Street Target
$90.51
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$72.75
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$71.59
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$75.35
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 15.2%)
$208.63
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 15.2%)
$114.96
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 15.2%)
$97.72
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.44
Bull Case
$170.24
(+127%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case
$154.76
(+106%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.7
Bear Case
$52.62
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$79.09
(+5.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 5:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SWK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-05
Gary C. Peters
BUY
2026-01-12
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Advanced SWK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SWK price and gamma walls.
