TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$123.08
1.60 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
-2.22%
30d:
+0.17%
90d:
+9.22%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
4d
Smart Money Accumulation
TGT is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $130 2026-06-18 with 9,428 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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4 traders called TGT this week
25% bullish • 3 bearish
25% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TGT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TGT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.56
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $123.08, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.48 to $129.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (14.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.67, while resistance sits at $131.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $117.67, while resistance sits at $131.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$121.48 -
$129.64
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($126.31)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.1% growth with -1.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.48 -
$129.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.67
Resistance Level
$131.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.11
Wall Street Target
$126.31
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.1% premium
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 14.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.13
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$133.38
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$138.85
(+13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$123.28
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$192.47
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 4.5%)
$140.65
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$119.55
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 14.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.13
Bull Case
$125.61
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.0%, PE expands to 16.4
Base Case
$114.19
(-7%)
Market implied -6.0%, PE stable at 14.9
Bear Case
$82.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew A Liegel
SELL
2053 shares
2026-03-17
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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Advanced TGT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.
