TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$139.16
-2.59 (-1.83%)
▼
5d:
-3.37%
30d:
+5.5%
90d:
+36.35%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TKR trades at premium valuation expecting 6.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: TKR trades at premium valuation expecting 6.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.19
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $139.16, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $130.54 to $141.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 19.3) compared to its historical average (16.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $139.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$130.54 -
$141.86
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($137.45)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.1% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$130.54 -
$141.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.73
Resistance Level
$139.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.29
Wall Street Target
$137.45
(-1.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
26.1%
Profit Margin
6.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.1% premium
PE vs Historical
19.3 vs 16.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$147.65
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$156.66
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$166.21
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$138.72
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.4%)
$254.11
(+83%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.3, Growth: 17.4%)
$225.07
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.1, Growth: 17.4%)
$187.84
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$256.21
(+84%)
Analyst growth 64.3%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$232.92
(+67%)
Market implied 64.3%, PE stable at 32.3
Bear Case
$96.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
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