TTD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TTD - The Trade Desk, Inc.
$22.38
1.10 (5.17%)
▲
5d:
+5.82%
30d:
-1.06%
90d:
-7.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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16 traders called TTD this week
76% bullish • 9 bearish
76% bullish • 9 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TTD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TTD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.46
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.85
22.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TTD is currently trading at $22.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.34 to $23.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.83, while resistance sits at $23.24. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TTD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.81 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TTD is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $19.83, while resistance sits at $23.24. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: TTD has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.81 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.34 -
$23.86
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TTD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.81)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.34 -
$23.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.83
Resistance Level
$23.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.34
Wall Street Target
$25.81
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.0%
Profit Margin
14.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 13.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.63
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$19.02
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$17.54
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→13)
$22.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 16.6%)
$75.53
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 16.6%)
$35.51
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 16.6%)
$30.19
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$48.75
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.7
Base Case
$44.32
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.2
Bear Case
$15.07
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$28.57
(+27.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 5:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TTD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
6
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
Byron Donalds
SELL
2026-03-20
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BUY
2026-03-13
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