TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$44.17
-1.39 (-3.05%)
▼
5d:
-4.44%
30d:
+3.49%
90d:
-1.21%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$57.59
Based on 7.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $44.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.45 to $45.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.8) compared to its historical average (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.55, while resistance sits at $49.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $42.55, while resistance sits at $49.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.45 -
$45.31
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.45 -
$45.31
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.55
Resistance Level
$49.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.81
Wall Street Target
$44.38
(+0.5%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
218.1%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.80
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$47.50
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$49.26
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.19
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.6%)
$153.56
(+248%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 11.6%)
$61.36
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 11.6%)
$52.16
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.00
Bull Case
$80.30
(+82%)
Analyst growth 67.2%, PE expands to 16.0
Base Case
$73.00
(+65%)
Market implied 67.2%, PE stable at 14.6
Bear Case
$29.69
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 9:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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