VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$250.74
5.97 (2.44%)
▲
5d:
+4.02%
30d:
+3.72%
90d:
+25.26%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
VLO is down 6.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $270 2026-06-18 with 5,225 OI. Call ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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1 traders called VLO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$121.99
Based on -14.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$75.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $250.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $233.59 to $248.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 317.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $255.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $255.51. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$233.59 -
$248.79
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($255.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$233.59 -
$248.79
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.25
Resistance Level
$255.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$255.21
(+1.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
317.9%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$243.22
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$235.92
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$228.84
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$250.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -32.0%)
$300.12
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: -32.0%)
$182.79
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: -32.0%)
$155.37
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.68
Bull Case
$367.13
(+46%)
Analyst growth 36.4%, PE expands to 19.7
Base Case
$333.76
(+33%)
Market implied 36.4%, PE stable at 17.9
Bear Case
$166.44
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$274.20
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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Advanced VLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLO price and gamma walls.
