WCN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WCN - Waste Connections, Inc.
$158.93
2.32 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+5.27%
30d:
-0.44%
90d:
-1.46%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WCN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WCN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$227.59
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$141.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WCN is currently trading at $158.93, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $154.81 to $164.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.4) is in line with its historical norms (28.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WCN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.08 (+30.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WCN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $160.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WCN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $204.08 (+30.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$154.81 -
$164.24
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.3% below Wall St target ($204.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$154.81 -
$164.24
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$148.84
Resistance Level
$160.35
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.35
Wall Street Target
$204.08
(+30.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.6%
Profit Margin
11.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.4 vs 28.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.44
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$146.44
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$141.61
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$156.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.3, Growth: 12.2%)
$221.39
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 12.2%)
$192.75
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 12.2%)
$163.84
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$256.17
(+64%)
Analyst growth 50.3%, PE expands to 41.5
Base Case
$232.88
(+49%)
Market implied 50.3%, PE stable at 37.7
Bear Case
$105.35
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.3 to 28.0
Stabilization Target:
$172.99
(+10.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 12:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:52 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WCN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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