WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$28.28
0.58 (2.09%)
▲
5d:
+7.57%
30d:
-8.18%
90d:
+9.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.98
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $28.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.11 to $31.18. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.4) compared to its historical average (16.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 393.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $28.62. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $38.12 (+34.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.11 -
$31.18
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.8% below Wall St target ($38.12)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.11 -
$31.18
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$28.62
Resistance Level
$34.55
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.44
Wall Street Target
$38.12
(+34.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
393.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 16.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.01
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$25.79
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$24.63
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$28.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$51.46
(+82%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 6.5%)
$34.11
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 6.5%)
$29.00
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$60.94
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$55.40
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.0
Bear Case
$18.84
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.4 to 16.6
Stabilization Target:
$32.51
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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