WMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMS - ADVANCED DRAINAGE SYSTEMS, INC.
$139.54
-1.18 (-0.84%)
▼
5d:
+6.15%
30d:
-4.5%
90d:
-8.06%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 6, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.18
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.58
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMS is currently trading at $139.54, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $133.30 to $161.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.7) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $141.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.20 (+40.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMS is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $141.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: WMS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $197.20 (+40.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$133.30 -
$161.12
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.1% below Wall St target ($197.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$133.30 -
$161.12
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.63
Resistance Level
$141.45
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 6, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.74
Wall Street Target
$197.20
(+40.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.4%
Profit Margin
15.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.7 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.79
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$131.04
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$126.46
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→23)
$140.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.7%)
$190.99
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 10.7%)
$189.44
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 10.7%)
$161.02
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.01
Bull Case
$164.17
(+19%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 24.2
Base Case
$149.24
(+8%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 22.0
Bear Case
$89.89
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.7 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$156.74
(+11.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 07, 2026 10:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert M Eversole
SELL
10569 shares
2025-12-03
D. Scott Barbour
SELL
80030 shares
2025-11-12
Thomas J Sr. Waun
SELL
1000 shares
2025-11-12
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