AAP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAP - ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC
$48.01
-0.11 (-0.23%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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2 traders called AAP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$86.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$53.90
10.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAP is currently trading at $48.01, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.83 to $46.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.92, while resistance sits at $50.98.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $39.92, while resistance sits at $50.98.
Market Sentiment: AAP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$39.83 -
$46.37
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($51.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -5.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.83 -
$46.37
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.92
Resistance Level
$50.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.03
Wall Street Target
$51.29
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.4%
Profit Margin
-4.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.42
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$50.75
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$52.12
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$48.29
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 47.0%)
$189.03
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 47.0%)
$152.81
(+218%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 47.0%)
$129.89
(+170%)
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AAP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAP price and gamma walls.
