ACIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACIC - American Coastal Insurance Corporation Common Stock
$10.53
-0.32 (-2.95%)
▼
5d:
-10.91%
30d:
-10.23%
90d:
-6.9%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACIC is down 10.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ACIC is down 10.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.78
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACIC is currently trading at $10.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.10 to $12.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.79, while resistance sits at $12.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.79, while resistance sits at $12.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+33.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.10 -
$12.03
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.0% below Wall St target ($14.00)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.10 -
$12.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.80
Resistance Level
$12.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.90
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+33.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Profit Margin
31.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 7.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.13
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.74
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$9.37
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.45
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$42.33
(+302%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$13.32
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 8.2%)
$11.32
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$8.51
(-19%)
Analyst growth -28.7%, PE expands to 5.6
Base Case
$7.73
(-27%)
Market implied -28.7%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$7.38
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$11.74
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 10, 2026 1:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-20
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
400 shares
2026-03-18
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
1400 shares
2026-03-04
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