ACIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACIC - American Coastal Insurance Corporation Common Stock
$10.85
0.22 (2.07%)
▲
5d:
+3.04%
30d:
-8.05%
90d:
-2.16%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACIC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACIC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.78
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACIC is currently trading at $10.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.88 to $12.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $9.79, while resistance sits at $11.93.
Market Sentiment: ACIC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACIC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $9.79, while resistance sits at $11.93.
Market Sentiment: ACIC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.88 -
$12.03
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($14.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.88 -
$12.03
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.80
Resistance Level
$11.93
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.11
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-9.9%
Profit Margin
31.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.56
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$10.27
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.99
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.82
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$42.58
(+293%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 8.2%)
$13.73
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 8.2%)
$11.67
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$8.33
(-23%)
Analyst growth -28.7%, PE expands to 5.5
Base Case
$7.58
(-30%)
Market implied -28.7%, PE stable at 5.0
Bear Case
$7.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 7.7
Stabilization Target:
$11.74
(+8.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 3:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-20
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
400 shares
2026-03-18
Kern Michael Davis
BUY
1400 shares
2026-03-04
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