ADC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADC - Agree Realty Corporation
$72.23
0.27 (0.38%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ADC is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$64.16
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADC is currently trading at $72.23, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $71.20 to $72.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 37.1) is in line with its historical norms (36.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $70.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.76 (+13.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $70.77. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ADC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (29th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $81.76 (+13.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$71.20 -
$72.74
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
29th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 29th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($81.76)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$71.20 -
$72.74
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.74
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$70.77
Resistance Level
$73.59
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
37.07
Wall Street Target
$81.76
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
7.1%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
37.1 vs 36.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.10
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$72.25
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$72.39
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→37)
PE COMPRESSION
$71.87
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 37.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$89.32
(+24%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.5%)
$53.73
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 7.5%)
$45.67
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$88.76
(+23%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$80.69
(+12%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 41.6
Bear Case
$48.33
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
7
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John Rakolta Jr
BUY
25154 shares
2025-10-07
Craig Erlich
BUY
360 shares
2025-10-03
Joey Agree
BUY
3528 shares
2025-10-02
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Advanced ADC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADC price and gamma walls.
