AEBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Common Stock
$12.38
0.38 (3.21%)
▲
5d:
+0.94%
30d:
+4.43%
90d:
-19.7%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.35
39.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AEBI is currently trading at $12.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.23 to $12.05. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+25.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.41. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+25.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.23 -
$12.05
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($15.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.23 -
$12.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.24
Resistance Level
$12.41
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.05
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
82.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.5%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 12.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.79
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.71
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.74
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$12.27
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 67.7%)
$98.69
(+723%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 67.7%)
$40.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 67.7%)
$34.40
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.18 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.74
Bull Case
$14.48
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$11.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$9.17
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$16.83
(+40.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AEBI showing a specific setup today?
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