AEBI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AEBI - Aebi Schmidt Holding AG Common Stock
$12.09
-0.25 (-2.03%)
▼
5d:
-8.41%
30d:
-1.71%
90d:
+28.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AEBI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.43
37.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AEBI is currently trading at $12.09, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.01 to $12.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.0) compared to its historical average (11.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AEBI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.00 (+24.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$12.01 -
$12.76
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($15.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.01 -
$12.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.88
Resistance Level
$13.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.96
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
82.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-82.0%
Profit Margin
0.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 11.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.00
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$10.01
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$9.11
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$12.11
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 87.5%)
$99.24
(+721%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 87.5%)
$40.80
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 87.5%)
$34.68
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.56
Bull Case
$14.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$12.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$9.25
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.0 to 11.9
Stabilization Target:
$16.07
(+32.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AEBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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