AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$186.38
4.27 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
+2.64%
30d:
+6.07%
90d:
+24.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AGM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AGM is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$244.88
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $186.38, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $174.63 to $181.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $185.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+20.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $185.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $219.67 (+20.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$174.63 -
$181.80
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.6% below Wall St target ($219.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$174.63 -
$181.80
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.52
Resistance Level
$185.87
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.53
Wall Street Target
$219.67
(+20.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
18.5%
Profit Margin
56.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$183.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$185.04
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$186.52
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$181.49
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 9.4%)
$612.34
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 9.4%)
$238.28
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: 9.4%)
$202.54
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $17.36
Bull Case
$245.36
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$223.06
(+23%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$123.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 10:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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