AGM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AGM - Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation
$174.76
-0.40 (-0.23%)
▼
5d:
+2.16%
30d:
+23.4%
90d:
+1.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AGM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$246.20
Based on 7.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$152.87
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AGM is currently trading at $174.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.93 to $170.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $215.33 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AGM is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $178.16. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AGM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $215.33 (+23.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$146.93 -
$170.50
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.2% below Wall St target ($215.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -5.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.93 -
$170.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$163.16
Resistance Level
$178.17
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.37
Wall Street Target
$215.33
(+23.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.7%
Profit Margin
55.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$174.93
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$175.11
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$175.28
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$173.82
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 10.6%)
$582.10
(+233%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 10.6%)
$236.39
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 10.6%)
$200.93
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.62
Bull Case
$242.06
(+39%)
Analyst growth 25.6%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$220.06
(+26%)
Market implied 25.6%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$119.11
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 4:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AGM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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