AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$17.01
0.15 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
+0.06%
30d:
+0.83%
90d:
-12.0%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AII trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AII trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.06
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $17.01, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.15 to $18.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.15 -
$18.30
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($23.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.15 -
$18.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.19
Resistance Level
$17.45
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.65
Wall Street Target
$23.75
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
27.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 6.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.19
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$15.42
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$14.68
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$16.89
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.8%)
$82.59
(+386%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 7.8%)
$21.28
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$18.09
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.84
Bull Case
$11.54
(-32%)
Analyst growth -37.8%, PE expands to 3.8
Base Case
$10.49
(-38%)
Market implied -37.8%, PE stable at 3.5
Bear Case
$11.46
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.58
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 4:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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