AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$140.11
-2.65 (-1.86%)
▼
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
+26.67%
90d:
+25.81%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AIR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AIR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$178.08
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $140.11, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.50 to $137.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.8) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $130.01, while resistance sits at $146.75.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $130.01, while resistance sits at $146.75.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.50 -
$137.55
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($131.60)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.50 -
$137.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.75
(6.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$130.01
Resistance Level
$146.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.80
Wall Street Target
$131.60
(-6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.5% premium
PE vs Historical
24.8 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$150.62
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$161.91
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$174.06
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$140.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$214.45
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$188.30
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.2%)
$160.06
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$194.95
(+39%)
Analyst growth 24.1%, PE expands to 34.5
Base Case
$177.23
(+27%)
Market implied 24.1%, PE stable at 31.4
Bear Case
$97.08
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
Sarah Louise Flanagan
SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
