ALG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALG - Alamo Group, Inc.
$173.13
-4.88 (-2.74%)
▼
5d:
-20.03%
30d:
-11.45%
90d:
+6.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALG is down 20.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALG is down 20.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$308.57
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$191.60
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALG is currently trading at $173.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $191.09 to $214.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.8) compared to its historical average (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $173.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.75 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALG is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $173.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $209.75 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$191.09 -
$214.26
Company Quality Score
37/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($209.75)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -20.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$191.09 -
$214.26
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.24
Resistance Level
$219.88
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.79
Wall Street Target
$209.75
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.0%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.8 vs 15.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$169.82
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$162.01
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$154.56
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$178.16
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 13.1%)
$421.79
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.8, Growth: 13.1%)
$257.55
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 13.1%)
$218.92
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.63
Bull Case
$295.52
(+38%)
Analyst growth 24.1%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$268.66
(+26%)
Market implied 24.1%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$147.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.8 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$205.19
(+15.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 06, 2026 5:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
304 shares
2025-11-26
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
154 shares
2025-11-14
Robert Paul Hureau
BUY
600 shares
2025-11-13
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