ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$82.84
-0.29 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
-1.3%
30d:
-10.05%
90d:
-2.86%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALGT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ALGT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$217.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.85
38.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $82.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.36 to $95.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (10.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.93, while resistance sits at $88.02.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.64 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $75.93, while resistance sits at $88.02.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.64 (+28.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$76.36 -
$95.68
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.7% below Wall St target ($106.64)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$76.36 -
$95.68
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.93
Resistance Level
$88.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.10
Wall Street Target
$106.64
(+28.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.4%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 10.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$74.97
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$67.84
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$61.40
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$82.66
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 56.4%)
$710.32
(+758%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 56.4%)
$279.57
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 56.4%)
$237.63
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 10.9
Stabilization Target:
$111.53
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 5:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
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