ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$76.56
-2.84 (-3.58%)
▼
5d:
-7.02%
30d:
-25.05%
90d:
-9.57%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
Get Alerted When ALGT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.60
44.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $76.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.87 to $98.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.36 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $74.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.36 (+42.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$76.87 -
$98.80
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.8% below Wall St target ($109.36)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.0% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$76.87 -
$98.80
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.87
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.47
Resistance Level
$88.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.40
Wall Street Target
$109.36
(+42.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.4%
Profit Margin
-1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$68.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$62.01
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$55.81
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→11)
$82.96
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 31.6%)
$527.45
(+589%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 31.6%)
$174.65
(+128%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 31.6%)
$148.45
(+94%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$113.80
(+48.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 8:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
Top Rated Airlines Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Airlines by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 57 HOLD |
|
UAL
United Airlines Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$135 | 50 HOLD |
|
AAL
American Airlines Group |
BUY
24 analysts |
$16 | 55 HOLD |
|
CPA
Copa Holdings SA |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$166 | 54 HOLD |
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$66 | 38 SELL |
