ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$88.63
-2.81 (-3.07%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.78
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.25
21.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $88.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.37 to $91.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.91, while resistance sits at $93.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.91, while resistance sits at $93.61. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$85.37 -
$91.53
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.18)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$85.37 -
$91.53
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.80
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.91
Resistance Level
$93.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.51
Wall Street Target
$100.18
(+9.6%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-84.4%
Profit Margin
-11.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 12.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.07
(0%)
2-Year Target
$90.71
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$90.35
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
$91.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 148.6%)
$550.16
(+502%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 148.6%)
$308.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 148.6%)
$262.32
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 12.7
Stabilization Target:
$92.84
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 9:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ALGT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALGT price and gamma walls.
