ALK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALK - Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$33.95
-2.21 (-6.11%)
▼
5d:
-12.11%
30d:
-34.21%
90d:
-34.06%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
Smart Money Distribution
ALK is up 3.7% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $40 2026-06-18 with 1,220 OI. Put ratio: 65% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALK is down 12.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ALK is down 12.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.65
50.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALK is currently trading at $33.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.24 to $50.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.5) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.81 (+79.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALK is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $64.81 (+79.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$37.24 -
$50.15
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ALK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 79.2% below Wall St target ($64.81)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.1% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$37.24 -
$50.15
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.03
Resistance Level
$41.40
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.52
Wall Street Target
$64.81
(+79.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.3%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.5 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.54
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$29.29
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$26.36
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$41.39
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 80.7%)
$604.51
(+1572%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.5, Growth: 80.7%)
$122.04
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.8, Growth: 80.7%)
$103.73
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.47 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$81.20
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.9
Base Case
$73.82
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.5
Bear Case
$25.10
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.5 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$56.77
(+57.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
5500 shares
2026-02-18
Shane R Tackett
SELL
24000 shares
2026-02-18
Andrew R Harrison
SELL
14500 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced ALK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALK price and gamma walls.
