ALTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALTO - Alto Ingredients, Inc. Common Stock
$5.56
-0.42 (-7.02%)
▼
5d:
+11.65%
30d:
-1.94%
90d:
+16.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.96
44.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALTO is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.10 to $5.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.1) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.81, while resistance sits at $6.11. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALTO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+61.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.81, while resistance sits at $6.11. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALTO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.00 (+61.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$5.10 -
$5.67
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 61.9% below Wall St target ($9.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.10 -
$5.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.81
Resistance Level
$6.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.11
Wall Street Target
$9.00
(+61.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-66.2%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.50
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.05
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→14)
$6.00
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 43.5%)
$39.28
(+607%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 43.5%)
$16.44
(+196%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 43.5%)
$13.97
(+151%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$10.84
(+95%)
Analyst growth 64.9%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$9.86
(+77%)
Market implied 64.9%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$4.07
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$8.24
(+48.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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