ALV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALV - Autoliv, Inc.
$120.61
-5.82 (-4.60%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.28
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.77
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALV is currently trading at $120.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.95 to $127.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.5) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $119.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALV is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $119.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$120.95 -
$127.41
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($138.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$120.95 -
$127.41
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.33
Resistance Level
$130.14
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.49
Wall Street Target
$138.73
(+9.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.0%
Profit Margin
7.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.07
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$129.74
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$131.43
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.99
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.9%)
$372.36
(+195%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 14.9%)
$191.82
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 14.9%)
$163.05
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.65
Bull Case
$160.76
(+27%)
Analyst growth 14.0%, PE expands to 14.6
Base Case
$146.14
(+16%)
Market implied 14.0%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$87.14
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 2:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-08-04
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ALV price and gamma walls.
