AMBP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$4.83
0.14 (2.99%)
▲
5d:
+7.33%
30d:
+18.97%
90d:
+17.52%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMBP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AMBP is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.88
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.89
1.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $4.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.01 to $4.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.4) is in line with its historical norms (15.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.84. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMBP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.01 -
$4.55
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($4.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.01 -
$4.55
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.33
Resistance Level
$4.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.41
Wall Street Target
$4.50
(-6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 15.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.90
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$4.98
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$5.05
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.8%)
$10.75
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$8.10
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.0, Growth: 18.8%)
$6.89
(+43%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 5:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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