AMBP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBP - Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.
$3.95
-0.06 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
-1.25%
30d:
-4.13%
90d:
-18.72%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMBP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMBP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.8% annual earnings decline despite 75% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.08
Based on 11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.02
21.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBP is currently trading at $3.95, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.91 to $4.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBP is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.50 (+13.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$3.91 -
$4.10
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.91 -
$4.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.88
Resistance Level
$4.09
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.42
Wall Street Target
$4.50
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.0%
Profit Margin
0.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.72
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$3.51
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$3.30
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$3.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 18.8%)
$10.89
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$6.63
(+68%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 18.8%)
$5.63
(+43%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$4.74
(+20.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 4:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:17 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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