AMTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMTM - Amentum Holdings, Inc.
$21.24
1.04 (5.15%)
▲
5d:
+5.72%
30d:
-9.08%
90d:
-19.36%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.36
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.55
22.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMTM is currently trading at $21.24, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $20.83 to $23.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1236.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.33 (+52.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMTM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.67. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMTM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $32.33 (+52.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$20.83 -
$23.22
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 52.2% below Wall St target ($32.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$20.83 -
$23.22
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.80
Resistance Level
$21.67
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.65
Wall Street Target
$32.33
(+52.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1236.6%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 10.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.24
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$17.43
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$15.80
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$21.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.5%)
$90.74
(+327%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 14.5%)
$31.89
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 14.5%)
$27.10
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.60
Bull Case
$44.44
(+109%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.0
Base Case
$40.40
(+90%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.7
Bear Case
$13.74
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$28.59
(+34.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+34.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 4:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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