AMWD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMWD - American Woodmark Corp
$45.87
0.58 (1.28%)
▲
5d:
+4.8%
30d:
+14.39%
90d:
-21.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMWD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.94
Based on -11.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMWD is currently trading at $45.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.78 to $44.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 25.5) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMWD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMWD is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $46.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AMWD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $59.00 (+28.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.78 -
$44.06
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.6% below Wall St target ($59.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.5% growth with -18.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.78 -
$44.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.66
Resistance Level
$46.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.53
Wall Street Target
$59.00
(+28.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-76.6%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.5% premium
PE vs Historical
25.5 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.77
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$54.00
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$58.59
(+28%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.90
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.5, Growth: -26.7%)
$33.44
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: -26.7%)
$26.99
(-41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: -26.7%)
$22.95
(-50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 39.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$77.16
(+68%)
Analyst growth 54.9%, PE expands to 43.0
Base Case
$70.15
(+53%)
Market implied 54.9%, PE stable at 39.0
Bear Case
$30.80
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 33.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMWD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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