APOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APOG - Apogee Enterprises Inc
$38.80
1.14 (3.03%)
▲
5d:
+0.81%
30d:
+3.91%
90d:
+5.98%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: February 3, 2026
Earnings: Apr 02, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.49
Based on -1.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.69
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APOG is currently trading at $38.80, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.19 to $38.68. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.2) compared to its historical average (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APOG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.63, while resistance sits at $40.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: APOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APOG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $36.63, while resistance sits at $40.55. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: APOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+11.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$35.19 -
$38.68
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.3% growth with 2.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$35.19 -
$38.68
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.60
(4.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.64
Resistance Level
$40.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.23
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+11.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.8%
Profit Margin
2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.3% premium
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 9.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.63
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$44.67
(+15%)
3-Year Target
$47.93
(+24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.81
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -7.7%)
$55.71
(+44%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: -7.7%)
$30.55
(-21%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -7.7%)
$24.73
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.14 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.87
Bull Case
$70.30
(+81%)
Analyst growth 69.7%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$63.91
(+65%)
Market implied 69.7%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$25.61
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 04, 2026 1:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced APOG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APOG price and gamma walls.