ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$12.69
-0.33 (-2.53%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 26, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.77
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.76
14.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $12.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.49 to $14.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.20 (+78.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.20 (+78.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$13.49 -
$14.07
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.2% below Wall St target ($23.20)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$13.49 -
$14.07
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.57
Resistance Level
$14.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.60
Wall Street Target
$23.20
(+78.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.4%
Profit Margin
0.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 17.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.79
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$12.56
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$12.33
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→18)
$13.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.5%)
$29.82
(+129%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 19.5%)
$22.20
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 19.5%)
$18.87
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.92 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.75
Bull Case
$15.32
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$12.69
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.9
Bear Case
$9.71
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.6 to 17.5
Stabilization Target:
$13.72
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
51668 shares
2025-10-15
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SELL
9171 shares
2025-10-02
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95430 shares
2025-10-02
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Advanced ARLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
