ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$13.58
0.12 (0.89%)
▲
5d:
-7.62%
30d:
-13.45%
90d:
-4.1%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ARLO is down 5.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-04-17 with 165 OI. Call ratio: 92% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARLO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.44
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.42
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $13.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.58 to $14.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.1) compared to its historical average (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+59.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.50 (+59.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$12.58 -
$14.97
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 59.7% below Wall St target ($21.50)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$12.58 -
$14.97
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.76
(5.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.69
Resistance Level
$15.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.12
Wall Street Target
$21.50
(+59.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.2%
Profit Margin
2.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 16.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.80
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$12.17
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$11.58
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$13.45
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 18.4%)
$35.46
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 18.4%)
$22.35
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 18.4%)
$19.00
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 17.70 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.83
Bull Case
$17.75
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.6
Base Case
$14.70
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.7
Bear Case
$11.25
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.1 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$15.63
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian Busse
SELL
25525 shares
2026-03-12
Matthew Blake Mcrae
SELL
153433 shares
2026-03-12
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced ARLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
