ASIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$19.83
0.38 (1.95%)
▲
5d:
+0.81%
30d:
-3.64%
90d:
+14.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASIC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASIC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.46
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.88
17.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $19.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.49 to $20.75. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (7.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $19.05, while resistance sits at $20.73.
Market Sentiment: ASIC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.60 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $19.05, while resistance sits at $20.73.
Market Sentiment: ASIC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.60 (+34.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$19.49 -
$20.75
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.1% below Wall St target ($26.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.49 -
$20.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.05
Resistance Level
$20.73
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.93
Wall Street Target
$26.60
(+34.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
155.0%
Profit Margin
19.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 7.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.87
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$19.91
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$19.95
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 25.8%)
$109.77
(+454%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: 25.8%)
$39.46
(+99%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: 25.8%)
$33.54
(+69%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$27.86
(+41%)
Analyst growth 30.2%, PE expands to 11.1
Base Case
$25.32
(+28%)
Market implied 30.2%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$13.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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