AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$92.97
0.73 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
-14.19%
30d:
-14.83%
90d:
-12.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$164.73
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.29
9.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $92.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $94.17 to $106.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.4) compared to its historical average (11.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.29 (+33.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $90.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AU has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $123.29 (+33.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$94.17 -
$106.97
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($123.29)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-14.2%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$94.17 -
$106.97
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.76
Resistance Level
$111.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.45
Wall Street Target
$123.29
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.2%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 11.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.12
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$76.72
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$69.97
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$91.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$309.66
(+236%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 8.7%)
$118.57
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 8.7%)
$100.78
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.81
Bull Case
$164.04
(+78%)
Analyst growth 60.3%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$149.13
(+62%)
Market implied 60.3%, PE stable at 13.7
Bear Case
$63.27
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 11.1
Stabilization Target:
$121.16
(+31.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+31.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 2:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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