AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$165.27
4.28 (2.66%)
▲
5d:
-1.73%
30d:
-16.71%
90d:
-29.71%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AVAV is down 7.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $165 2026-06-18 with 1,165 OI. Call ratio: 66% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
Get Alerted When AVAV Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
9 traders called AVAV this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $165.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $173.18 to $199.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 40.8) compared to its historical average (56.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $156.00, while resistance sits at $195.85.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $309.88 (+87.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $156.00, while resistance sits at $195.85.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $309.88 (+87.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$173.18 -
$199.91
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 87.5% below Wall St target ($309.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$173.18 -
$199.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$156.00
Resistance Level
$195.85
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.80
Wall Street Target
$309.88
(+87.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
143.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.8 vs 56.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.74
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$133.87
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$120.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→56)
$165.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.8, Growth: 40.6%)
$459.54
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 40.6%)
$248.25
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 40.6%)
$211.01
(+28%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.8 to 56.1
Stabilization Target:
$227.25
(+37.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
Top Rated Aerospace & Defense Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Aerospace & Defense by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
BA
The Boeing Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$270 | 62 BUY |
|
HWM
Howmet Aerospace Inc |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$296 | 62 BUY |
|
LHX
L3Harris Technologies Inc |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$384 | 63 BUY |
|
TDG
Transdigm Group Incorpor… |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$1532 | 61 BUY |
|
RTX
Raytheon Technologies Co… |
BUY
24 analysts |
$216 | 61 BUY |
Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
