AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$190.89
18.45 (10.70%)
▲
5d:
+39.66%
30d:
-6.59%
90d:
+4.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 176% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AVAV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -3.5% annual earnings decline despite 176% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$194.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.06
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $190.89, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $153.17 to $196.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 47.7) compared to its historical average (53.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.20, while resistance sits at $200.38. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $247.35 (+29.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $135.20, while resistance sits at $200.38. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 10.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $247.35 (+29.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$153.17 -
$196.74
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+10.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 29.6% below Wall St target ($247.35)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$153.17 -
$196.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$135.20
Resistance Level
$200.38
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
47.66
Wall Street Target
$247.35
(+29.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
133.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
47.7 vs 53.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$184.21
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$177.76
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$171.54
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 48→53)
$190.74
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 47.7, Growth: 39.5%)
$517.94
(+171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 39.5%)
$236.67
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 39.5%)
$201.17
(+5%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 47.7 to 53.0
Stabilization Target:
$212.26
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 7:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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