AWI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AWI - Armstrong World Industries, Inc.
$183.74
-0.38 (-0.21%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AWI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$282.29
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$175.28
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AWI is currently trading at $183.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $187.91 to $197.23. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.8) is in line with its historical norms (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $211.10 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AWI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $181.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $211.10 (+14.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$187.91 -
$197.23
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($211.10)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$187.91 -
$197.23
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$181.90
Resistance Level
$198.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.78
Wall Street Target
$211.10
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.1%
Profit Margin
19.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.8 vs 22.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$182.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$180.45
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$178.82
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→22)
$183.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.8%)
$270.17
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.8%)
$263.84
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 12.8%)
$224.26
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.98
Bull Case
$244.14
(+33%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$221.94
(+21%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 26.3
Bear Case
$124.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.8 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$189.00
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AWI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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