AXL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXL - American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc.
$7.97
-0.11 (-1.36%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 13, 2026
12d
Smart Money Accumulation
AXL is down 3.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $9 2026-03-20 with 893 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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1 traders called AXL this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AXL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.56
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.04
11.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXL is currently trading at $7.97, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.64 to $8.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.47, while resistance sits at $8.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.78 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXL is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $7.47, while resistance sits at $8.63.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.78 (+21.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$6.64 -
$8.07
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($9.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with None% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$6.64 -
$8.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.47
Resistance Level
$8.63
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.57
Wall Street Target
$9.78
(+21.0%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.5%
Profit Margin
0.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 10.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.30
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$8.52
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$8.75
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 56.2%)
$52.58
(+551%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 56.2%)
$27.27
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 56.2%)
$23.18
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.34
Bull Case
$17.69
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 26.0
Base Case
$16.08
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.7
Bear Case
$5.47
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced AXL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AXL price and gamma walls.
