AXTA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AXTA - Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
$28.16
0.25 (0.90%)
▲
5d:
-1.44%
30d:
+0.25%
90d:
-16.66%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXTA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AXTA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$41.55
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AXTA is currently trading at $28.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.50 to $29.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.36, while resistance sits at $29.76.
Market Sentiment: AXTA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.21 (+25.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AXTA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.36, while resistance sits at $29.76.
Market Sentiment: AXTA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.21 (+25.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.50 -
$29.42
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.1% below Wall St target ($35.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.50 -
$29.42
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.36
Resistance Level
$29.76
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$35.21
(+25.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 11.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.32
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$26.50
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$25.70
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$28.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 8.4%)
$78.60
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$35.90
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 8.4%)
$30.51
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$51.13
(+82%)
Analyst growth 63.6%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$46.48
(+65%)
Market implied 63.6%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$19.32
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$30.77
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 2:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AXTA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-23
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