AZO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AZO - AutoZone, Inc.
$3704.29
0.53 (0.01%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AZO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.6% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6131.90
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3807.43
2.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AZO is currently trading at $3704.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3346.25 to $3673.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.3) is in line with its historical norms (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3410.72, while resistance sits at $3837.50.
Market Sentiment: AZO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4213.17 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AZO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3410.72, while resistance sits at $3837.50.
Market Sentiment: AZO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4213.17 (+13.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3346.25 -
$3673.55
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($4213.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 8.2% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3346.25 -
$3673.55
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$158.60
(4.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3410.72
Resistance Level
$3837.50
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.26
Wall Street Target
$4213.17
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.6%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.3 vs 20.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3725.98
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$3748.34
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$3770.83
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$3707.15
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 18.2%)
$6415.81
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.3, Growth: 18.2%)
$6116.31
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.1, Growth: 18.2%)
$5198.86
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $143.26
Bull Case
$5083.34
(+37%)
Analyst growth 21.6%, PE expands to 29.2
Base Case
$4621.22
(+25%)
Market implied 21.6%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$2583.99
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AZO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Philip B Daniele
SELL
2533 shares
2025-10-17
John Scott Murphy
SELL
2860 shares
2025-09-24
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
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Advanced AZO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AZO price and gamma walls.
