HSAI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSAI - Hesai Group American Depositary Share, each ADS represents one Class B ordinary share
$22.44
-1.17 (-4.96%)
▼
5d:
+3.89%
30d:
-8.56%
90d:
-12.85%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
HSAI is down 3.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $30 2026-07-17 with 1,954 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSAI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSAI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.74
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.61
35.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSAI is currently trading at $22.44, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.27 to $23.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (4.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSAI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.83, while resistance sits at $24.41. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HSAI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.50 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSAI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $20.83, while resistance sits at $24.41. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HSAI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.50 (+35.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$21.27 -
$23.30
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 35.9% below Wall St target ($30.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.27 -
$23.30
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.83
Resistance Level
$24.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.53
Wall Street Target
$30.50
(+35.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
39.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.9%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 4.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.73
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$19.16
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$17.70
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$22.58
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 53.6%)
$473.75
(+2011%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: 53.6%)
$75.74
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.0, Growth: 53.6%)
$64.37
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.67
Bull Case
$27.10
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.1
Base Case
$22.44
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.4
Bear Case
$17.17
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 4.5
Stabilization Target:
$28.62
(+27.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 9:44 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:44 AM
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HSAI price and gamma walls.
