BGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGC - BGC Group, Inc. Class A Common Stock
$11.36
-0.06 (-0.57%)
▼
5d:
-0.31%
30d:
-2.7%
90d:
+23.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
BGC is down 4.6% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $12 2026-06-18 with 3 OI. Call ratio: 100% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BGC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.00
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.94
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGC is currently trading at $11.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.94 to $11.55. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+35.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.50 (+35.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.94 -
$11.55
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.7% below Wall St target ($15.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.94 -
$11.55
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.54
Resistance Level
$11.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.07
Wall Street Target
$15.50
(+35.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
54.8%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.73
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$12.05
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$12.37
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.37
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$52.36
(+359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 13.7%)
$16.80
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$14.28
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.37
Bull Case
$24.55
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.2
Base Case
$22.32
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.2
Bear Case
$7.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 12:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jean-Pierre Aubin
SELL
10000 shares
2026-03-05
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Advanced BGC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BGC price and gamma walls.
