BLDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLDR - Builders FirstSource, Inc.
$114.40
-0.83 (-0.72%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BLDR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.70
Based on -3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLDR is currently trading at $114.40, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $105.49 to $124.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (17.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.10 (+13.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLDR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $111.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $131.10 (+13.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$105.49 -
$124.14
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BLDR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($131.10)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with -6.9% revenue growth
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$105.49 -
$124.14
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$111.19
Resistance Level
$131.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.26
Wall Street Target
$131.10
(+13.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-54.9%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 17.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.19
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$119.18
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$121.21
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$115.53
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$102.62
(+-11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: -10.4%)
$84.00
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: -10.4%)
$71.40
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.27
Bull Case
$154.27
(+35%)
Analyst growth 19.8%, PE expands to 24.4
Base Case
$140.25
(+23%)
Market implied 19.8%, PE stable at 22.2
Bear Case
$79.62
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-13
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