BP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BP - BP p.l.c.
$44.12
-0.02 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
+0.71%
30d:
-4.34%
90d:
+18.63%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
BP is down 4.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $42 2026-06-18 with 5,660 OI. Call ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.2% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.2% annual earnings decline despite 474% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.18
Based on -9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $44.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.66 to $46.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 474.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.54 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $43.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.54 (+12.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.66 -
$46.99
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($49.54)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.66 -
$46.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.22
Resistance Level
$47.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.73
Wall Street Target
$49.54
(+12.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
474.5%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.38
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$38.82
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$36.41
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$44.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -23.4%)
$66.08
(+50%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: -23.4%)
$32.16
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: -23.4%)
$27.34
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$97.11
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.2
Base Case
$88.28
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$30.02
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.7 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$53.47
(+21.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BP price and gamma walls.
