BP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BP - BP p.l.c.
$37.40
1.25 (3.46%)
▲
5d:
-0.85%
30d:
-13.82%
90d:
-19.0%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.53
Based on -8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BP is currently trading at $37.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.32 to $43.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.2) compared to its historical average (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 474.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.04, while resistance sits at $39.85. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: BP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.62 (+30.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BP is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.04, while resistance sits at $39.85. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: BP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.62 (+30.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$38.32 -
$43.25
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 30.0% below Wall St target ($48.62)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$38.32 -
$43.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.04
Resistance Level
$39.85
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.15
Wall Street Target
$48.62
(+30.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
474.5%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 12.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.96
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$30.83
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$28.00
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→12)
$37.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -20.7%)
$64.92
(+74%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: -20.7%)
$27.26
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: -20.7%)
$23.17
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.24
Bull Case
$79.53
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.1
Base Case
$72.30
(+93%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.2
Bear Case
$24.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.1 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$49.88
(+33.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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