BWXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BWXT - BWX Technologies, Inc.
$232.83
3.26 (1.42%)
▲
5d:
+7.8%
30d:
+17.7%
90d:
+15.57%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
20d
Smart Money Accumulation
BWXT is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-05-15 with 997 OI. Call ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BWXT is 7.1% above fair value ($217.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BWXT is 7.1% above fair value ($217.34). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$190.13
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$118.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BWXT is currently trading at $232.83, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $196.46 to $217.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 45.0) is in line with its historical norms (43.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $237.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BWXT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $237.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BWXT has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$196.46 -
$217.34
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BWXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.1% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($232.27)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$196.46 -
$217.34
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.00
Resistance Level
$237.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
45.01
Wall Street Target
$232.27
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
31.1%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
45.0 vs 43.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$236.32
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$239.87
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$243.47
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 45→43)
PE COMPRESSION
$233.15
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 45.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$328.03
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.6, Growth: 12.1%)
$149.92
(-36%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 12.1%)
$127.43
(-45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (65x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (45x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 64.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.57
Bull Case
$367.08
(+60%)
Analyst growth 44.9%, PE expands to 71.0
Base Case
$333.71
(+45%)
Market implied 44.9%, PE stable at 64.5
Bear Case
$156.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 54.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 13, 2026 5:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BWXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin James Gorman
SELL
1344 shares
2026-03-02
Gerhard F Burbach
SELL
1983 shares
2026-02-25
Rex D Geveden
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-12
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Advanced BWXT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BWXT price and gamma walls.
