CAE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CAE - CAE INC
$25.86
0.37 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
-0.88%
30d:
-3.79%
90d:
-14.77%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CAE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CAE shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.78
Based on 4.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.73
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CAE is currently trading at $25.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.54 to $27.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.5) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.43 (+31.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CAE is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.10. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.43 (+31.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$25.54 -
$27.17
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($33.43)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.54 -
$27.17
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.10
Resistance Level
$27.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.54
Wall Street Target
$33.43
(+31.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.9%
Profit Margin
7.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.24
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$24.98
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$24.73
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→21)
$25.40
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 3.9%)
$30.75
(+21%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.5, Growth: 3.9%)
$28.62
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.5, Growth: 3.9%)
$24.33
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.86
Bull Case
$41.60
(+63%)
Analyst growth 44.3%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$37.82
(+48%)
Market implied 44.3%, PE stable at 30.5
Bear Case
$17.82
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.5 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$26.18
(+2.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CAE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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