CG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CG - The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock
$50.04
0.88 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
-3.88%
90d:
-8.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
CG is down 3.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $60 2026-06-18 with 2,432 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.12
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.13
25.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CG is currently trading at $50.04, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.99 to $51.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 70.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.62, while resistance sits at $52.89.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.69 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.62, while resistance sits at $52.89.
Market Sentiment: CG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.69 (+21.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$47.99 -
$51.34
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.3% below Wall St target ($60.69)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$47.99 -
$51.34
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.62
Resistance Level
$52.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.55
Wall Street Target
$60.69
(+21.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-94.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
70.2%
Profit Margin
16.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.34
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$46.70
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$45.11
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$50.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 28.2%)
$243.40
(+386%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 28.2%)
$105.51
(+111%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 28.2%)
$89.68
(+79%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.46
Bull Case
$110.40
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$100.36
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$34.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.6
Stabilization Target:
$55.52
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 1:30 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David M Rubenstein
SELL
500000 shares
2026-03-19
David M Rubenstein
SELL
625000 shares
2025-12-10
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CG price and gamma walls.
