CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$10.96
-0.02 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
+3.4%
30d:
-2.23%
90d:
+2.43%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.96
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $10.96, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.70 to $11.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.7) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $11.20. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.36 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.70 -
$11.24
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.70 -
$11.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.48
Resistance Level
$11.20
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.72
Wall Street Target
$12.36
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.84
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$10.72
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$10.60
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$10.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.4%)
$35.22
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.7, Growth: 4.4%)
$12.48
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 4.4%)
$10.61
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.70
Bull Case
$24.16
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$21.96
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.7
Bear Case
$7.47
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.7 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.36
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 15, 2026 7:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:54 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
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