CGBD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGBD - Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Common Stock
$11.49
-0.05 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-3.02%
30d:
+1.79%
90d:
-7.17%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 10, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CGBD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.82
Based on -5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGBD is currently trading at $11.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.94 to $11.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGBD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CGBD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$10.94 -
$11.59
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($12.64)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.94 -
$11.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.19
Resistance Level
$11.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 29, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.00
Wall Street Target
$12.64
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.52
(0%)
2-Year Target
$11.49
(0%)
3-Year Target
$11.47
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$11.62
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: -14.5%)
$29.61
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -14.5%)
$11.49
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -14.5%)
$9.77
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.01
Bull Case
$17.84
(+55%)
Analyst growth 42.9%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$16.22
(+41%)
Market implied 42.9%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$7.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$11.69
(+1.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 29, 2026 11:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGBD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Francis Taylor
BUY
232 shares
2026-03-20
John G Nestor
SELL
4401 shares
2026-03-06
John G Nestor
SELL
7085 shares
2025-11-14
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